Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Comment: US looks to ease credit

Many will say it's what caused the trouble in the first place, but easy credit has become the core of the American economic values system. So, the Federal Reserve is expected to make another cut in interest rates, a move which will eventually become available as the rate goes below 1 percent.

Now very good news for the smart people who have their money in FDIC-protected savings accounts, but these folk haven't had much say over the past few decades in what Washington does with the people's money.

Interestingly, with all the growth in money supply we have still seen the US dollar moving up and gold moving down, although this trend has reversed somewhat in the last few days. This appears to be going against the fundamentals, but a lot of people have an interest in propping the dollar up.

With the holiday season coming up, Asian exporters want the dollar high so they can sell their goods on the US market. Oil exporting countries also want the to prop up the dollar with oil prices having plunged so steeply. Both Asian and Middle Eastern countries are sitting on huge stashes of dollar reserves and dollar-based loans, so it makes sense that a good chunk of the money flowing out of the equities markets would go toward defending the dollar. Only the yen has been doing better among the major currencies.

The high dollar is of course bad news for US exporters who were not doing all that well even before the crisis began. Therefore we could see that trade deficit maintain its position or even expand in the coming months despite a general slowdown in the economy.

In other economic news, both consumer confidence and housing prices created new records today. Confidence plunged to an all-time low in October, while housing prices set a record yearly dive of 17.7 percent.


The Associated Press
Fed meets, with new rate cut expected
AFP - 2 hours ago
The US central bank, which led a coordinated global rate cut earlier this month that pushed its target rate down a half-point to 1.50 percent, ...
Tips for savers, as another Fed rate cut looms Los Angeles Times
Can a Fed rate cut make credit flow? Christian Science Monitor

Fed heads toward uncharted territory CNNMoney.com

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Saturday, October 18, 2008

Comment: A week of economic indicators

US economic reports released this week showed the economy taking the dips expected after a year and a half of financial sliding, not just the most recent crash cycle.

The financial downturn was sparked largely by the mortgage crisis and thus it is not surprising that new housing construction for the year will be lower than anytime since World War II.

U.S. industrial production plunged 2.8 percent in September, the steepest decline since 1974.

With more mortgage resets due in the coming years, there will be continued downward pressure on real estate values further damaging exposed financial institutions.

On Friday we also heard that US consumer confidence has fallen more in September than in any month since records began in 1978.

What's a derivative?

You've probably heard about derivatives in all the news related to the current credit meltdown.

They are the most important type of debt or "leverage" existing out there although not often included in general debt assessments. The totally unregulated derivative market is estimated at around $500 trillion to $600 trillion -- no one really knows. Of course, this is not real "money." No one quite knows for sure what a derivative really represents.

Derivatives are a type of insurance to help divert risk.

Warren Buffet called them "financial weapons of mass destruction" that carried the potential of harming both buyer and seller.

The most important type of derivative is the credit default swap (CDS), a type of insurance purchased to protect a company or investor from its own debt bubble. Thus, if a bankruptcy occurs there is a type of CDS that will actually pay people to make up the loss. There are about $60 trillion worth of CDS in the world today.

It doesn't take a genius to note that if a major financial crisis occurs, there could be a wave of bankruptcies with the resultant CDS payoffs.

The problem of course is there is not enough money to cover these credit default swaps. Who around is going to pony up possibly tens of trillions of dollars?


ReutersConsumer sentiment plunges at fastest rate ever
MarketWatch - Oct 17, 2008
It's unlikely that consumer confidence will reach levels consistent with rising spending until next year, Shepherdson added. While inflation has eased ...
Worst Drop in Consumer Confidence in History PoliGazette
Here's a surprise, consumer confidence plummets in October AXcess News

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