Thursday, October 23, 2008

Nouriel Roubini: Hedge fund could vanish Darwin-style



In a speech before hedge fund managers in London today economics professor Nouriel Roubini predicted a run on hedge funds that could result in 30 percent of the hedge fund assets disappearing in a "fairly Darwinian manner."

The impact on the stocks could be so severe that the market would have to be closed for a week or more.

Roubini predicted the current crash in 2006.

He predicts the worse recession in 40 years that will last at least 24 months in the United States. Roubini sees a vicious cycle occurring between the financial sector and the "real economy." Because of the tsunami of mortgage foreclosures, he suggests that the government help homeowners as they did during the Great Depression.

He sees a 40 percent drop in home prices, which would be worse than the Great Depression. And he thinks at least $3 trillion will be needed in bailouts to prevent a systemic banking failure.



Nouriel Roubini on Bloomberg TV

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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Comment: Beware the swinging stock market

Monday's record climb in the US stock market might have seemed like good news to some that things were starting to turn around for equities.

However, as we saw Wednesday and so far early today, the market is still very volatile.

In fact, the four highest percentage gains for a day in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average came during the darkest days of the Great Depression.


Highest Daily Percentage Gains

1933-03-15 -- +15.34
1931-10-06 -- +14.87
1929-10-30 -- +12.34
1932-09-21 -- +11.36


Three of the four highest daily percentage losses also came during the Great Depression.

So generally until things stabilize for a goodly period, it will be difficult to say when the current bottom has been reached.



NYU economics professor Nouriel Roubini discuses what Americans can expect to see over the next few months due to the financial crisis on the Charlie Rose show.

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