Saturday, October 04, 2008

German bank announces collapse of rescue plan

With the $700 billion passed and actually swollen by another $150 billion in tax cuts, observers will be watching the markets closely.

Earlier bailout attempts did not work, and the hope here is that by handling all the highest risk mortgages at once, the government can turn things around.

There are, however, many things the plan does not cover. Overseas, for example, a major German real estate bank is involved in the largest rescue operation of the country's history.


German bank announces collapse of 35 billion euro rescue

Sat Oct 4, 4:01 PM ET

BERLIN (AFP) - German bank Hypo Real Estate (HRE) said Saturday that a planned 35-billion-euro (48-billion-dollar) rescue had fallen through after the banking consortium involved pulled out of the deal.

The rescue bid was the biggest in German history and came after HRE was sucked into the global financial turmoil through its inability to refinance debt, one of many high-profile European emergency cases in the past two weeks.

HRE said in a statement that a consortium of German banks taking part in the rescue had "refused to provide liquidity lines" and that it was seeking new measures.

The property lender said it was in the process of "determining the consequences" of the consortium's withdrawal on various divisions and that it would seek other solutions.

Earlier in the day, the Welt am Sonntag newspaper said in a report to appear on Sunday that the bailout plan would have to be reworked because the bank's cash needs had been underestimated.

The biggest German Bank, Deutsche Bank, had reportedly evaluated that HRE would need 20 billion euros in fresh capital by the end of next week.

Deutsche Bank warned in addition that "by the end of the year, there will be a shortfall of up to 50 billion euros and even of 70 to 100 billion by the end of 2009," the newspaper said.

Deutsche Bank issued the warning late Friday during a telephone conference with representatives of the German banking and insurance sector, the report said.

The rescue plan had comprised an immediate cash injection by private banks and by the European Central Bank, which was to be backed by a 35-million-euro guarantee.

Most of the backing, 26.5 billion euros, was to be provided by the German government, with the rest covered by private banks.

It was announced on September 29 following weekend talks between German officials and the banks, and given the green light on Thursday by the European Commission.

The Commission had hailed Berlin's bailout plan as "part of the solution" to the current financial crisis.

HRE was hobbled by debts incurred by a German-Irish subsidiary, Depfa, which it bought in October 2007, after the international financial crisis emerged with the collapse of the US market for high-risk, or subprime, mortgages.

Depfa specialises in the financing of public works projects.

The parent real-estate bank found itself unable to refinance operations owing to a credit squeeze that worsened after the US investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in September.

HRE shares had lost three-quarters of their value last Monday, and though they clawed back some ground over the week, they closed on Friday at 7.51 euros, down a hefty 44.4 percent from their level one week earlier.

In Paris meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was attending European crisis talks on the financial crisis when it was announced that the HRE rescue plan had fallen through.

Merkel had told media earlier that "each country must take its responsibilities at a national level," and added: "It is important to act in a balanced way, and for countries not to cause harm to each other."

That comment appeared to be aimed at Ireland, which has issued a blanket guarantee to bank depositors without consulting its ne
ighbours.

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

What if the bailout doesn't stop market meltdown?

Supposedly the idea is that by buying hundreds of billions of dollars of shares in failing financial companies, the U.S. government hopes to halt the down spin on Wall Street.

If we distill the meaning, the hope is mainly to stop the instability in the stock markets. By shoring up the investment companies, the idea is that confidence will be restored and the indexes will stop plunging or swinging wildly. This is an idea that seems to register on Wall Street itself, or at least among the day and swing traders. After news of the bailout, not only did the markets rebound but oil prices dropped sharply.

The drop in oil seemed to indicate that people thought the economy would rebound after the bailout and that demand in oil would go up.

However, long-time observers of stock markets will know that taking any drastic action based on perceived future action of these markets is very risky.

The markets themselves showed uncertainly when Monday stocks went in the opposite direction and oil prices experienced a record rise. And that was just over one weekend! What happens if taxpayers get stuck with half a trillion in toxic assets, but the market does not respond in the manner that the administration hopes it will?

There may be more to this economic crisis than appears on the surface. It may not be long before other companies from different sectors also show signs of failing en masse. Does the government keep borrowing money to bail out these companies also.

Supporters of the bailout claim the action is needed to prevent a "run on the banks" were people rush to withdraw money from retirement accounts and money market funds. The use of the phrase "run on the bank" probably is not being used accidentally. It's something most people understand from watching Hollywood movies.

However, one must ask whether the government's buying of bad stock can in any way stop people from relocating their assets to safer havens. In a free market, one has to consider that investors may not react in the way you are assuming they will.

However, with an election coming up in November, it is certain that Congress and the administration must do something to show that they are on top of the situation. Most experts agree they will pass some type of package. The details though could differ widely. They may decide, for example, to put more money into helping struggling homeowners.

Whatever they do, all eyes will be focused on the stock markets after the legislation goes into action.


StarPhoenix

Congress balks at banks bailout plan
guardian.co.uk, UK - 2 hours ago

But the key problem not addressed by the bailout – a point also made by Krugman – is that some banks remain under-capitalised, ie they don't have enough ...

Bush offers $500 billion bailout Minneapolis Star Tribune
US financial rescue plan could cost one trillion dlrs: senator AFP

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